Premier League Table Predictions

There was a time – let’s call it 2nd January 2022 – when plenty of Internet pundits were bemoaning another season without a Premier League title race. You’ll have to check the archives to see if we were one of them. That tone has most certainly changed. Manchester City had a 75.3% chance of winning the Premier League on March 1, which was right in line with our pre-season predictions. With City’s loss to Tottenham and draw with Crystal Palace, that’s gotten closer to the point now that Liverpool can overtake the current English champions this weekend. After a draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge at the start of January, Jürgen Klopp’s side was in third, 11 points back of City (with a game in hand) and facing a month with some of their top players at the AFCON. The most certain percentage on the table is Chelsea finishing third (94.1%), and that’s some assurance the European champions will probably take at this point after having nightmares of Karim Benzema this week. That position is really only going to change if Arsenal can make up five points in nine matches. Spurs are five points back as well but only have eight games to make up the difference. Either north London team, though, figures to be plenty happy with fourth. Arsenal have a 62.8% chance of sealing a Champions League spot – most likely in fourth place (59.1%), but that’s the most interesting race at the top of the table. The Gunners have played a game less than Tottenham, but the two still have a match to play. If it were up to Antonio Conte, that match would have been played as originally scheduled back on 16 January, but as late-season six-pointers go, the neutrals are going to be just fine with watching that one on 12 May – assuming the race stays tight enough. Things were looking particularly good for Arsenal in the middle of March when their chances of finishing in the top four peaked at 74.1%. Since, that’s dipped thanks to that 3-0 loss to Palace – a team that doesn’t have a 30% chance of finishing in any particular spot on the table but is doing the most to make sure we’ve got entertaining races at the top. For Spurs, it’s been a weird year because for Spurs it’s always a weird year. In January, their top-four odds spiked to 52.6%. By late February, their chances of a top-four finish had dipped to 3.5%. It seemed like Conte as at times trying to run himself out of London. Now, those top-four chances are better than one in three. Now, will it still be this compelling of a race come 12 May? Hopefully, but the issue is the lack of consistency and predictability with both of these sides. Layer on Spurs’ remaining trip up to Anfield and Arsenal’s Chelsea-Manchester United-West Ham string of matches, and it makes it feel like there’s a hell of a long way to go here. But the teams that desperately want to stretch the season out are at the bottom… Oh boy, Everton, what was that? Everton have picked up 11 of their 25 points this season from losing positions. Unfortunately after We