Just The Tip - Melbourne Cup 2017 HD

This is the race that stops a nation, 23 of the best stayers around the world this year come down to compete in the great 2 mile race. This year, like every year is a massive puzzle. The job of getting it all into a nice picture is extremely hard but extremely enjoyable. Trying to tie in overseas form with local form, who’s had a lead up run, who hasn’t, weights, barriers, jockeys and trainers. These things all make up the Melbourne Cup. I think this years edition will be pretty strongly run, you have pace makers in here like Gallante, Cismontane and Us Army Ranger. They will be trying to make this a true test. Cismontane with no weight and the team Williams runners getting it up for Almandin and Rekindling. This should split the field up a bit but also gets everyone in a smooth racing pattern. My guess though is that around the 2400m mark, a few of the lesser chances or non 3200m types will begin to drop off. This is a big question mark for a few of the horses on speed. It could be a similar situation as the Caulfield Cup, with a few runners packing up on the turn and causing some traffic jams for those on the inside. Very tough year, even field with not a huge edge. Ill be splinting my bet over 2-3 horses. Ill post up the other races later tonight and exotic numbers for each race. First : 6. Red Cardinal This very lightly raced 5yo gelding out of German has all the positives to run a massive race in this year’s cup. I think he will start around the 20/1 mark (mainly because of the barrier) which is excellent value in my opinion. Gains the service of one of the best riders in the country in Kerin McEvoy (last year’s Melbourne Cup winner) with a winnable weight of 55kg. The draw is a slight concern, but he does get back in his races so wont loose much from drifting back in the initial stages. His form lines read well with a last start 5th behind Marmelo, who has franked the form with a nice run in the Caulfield Cup. I think this was due to a slow tempo for Red Cardinal and a small break between runs (he was holding to the line). 2 back he won the Belmont Gold Cup in a nice time of 3:18:79. This was on a frim 2, but the style in which he won was really nice. He beat Wicklow Brave into 4th. 3 starts back he won again over the 2 miles, with an economical ride up the rail. It was in the inferior part of the track and off a slow pace, but he showed some brilliance with a decent turn of foot. Besides the barrier draw, I think this horse ticks a lot of boxes. If he can sit just off midfield, with a strong tempo likely, this horse should get ever chance to win this year’s Melbourne Cup. Second: 2. Almandin Last year’s winner comes back here with the biggest weight difference for a returning winner. I think the horse will start around that 9/1 figure and will run right up to that. His preparation has been geared towards tomorrow and even though he was slightly disappointing last start, he was still strong to the line and was looking for further. His sect